By: Chris Nosek

As we enter the final stretch of games before the playoffs, let’s take a look at where we stand in the Eastern Conference and see how things may end.

Atlantic Division

Buffalo has taken control of the division as the Lightning have had several injuries that have taken their toll. Despite another great season from Vasilevskiy, the Lightning have shown on several occasions that they are a beatable team. They have the experience to remain the team to beat in the Atlantic, regardless of where they finish in the standings.

Montreal is clearly hoping Jakob Dobes can succeed as the team’s starting goaltender. Unfortunately, their 5-4-1 record over their last 10 games just isn’t good enough. They now have to worry about the Boston Bruins surpassing them in the standings. They’re getting into the playoffs; it’s just a matter of whether it’s as a Wild Card team.

Metropolitan Division

Pittsburgh managed to stay afloat despite the time missed by both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Now that those two are back, the likelihood of the Penguins falling out of the two spot in the Metro is significantly lower. Columbus has jumped into the third spot as expected. They’re playing so well under Bowness, I wouldn’t expect them to drop out of this spot – they may even be able to pass Pittsburgh and earn a home series.

Most noteworthy in this division has been the turnaround we’re seeing in Carolina. Brandon Bussi has hit a wall, losing 3 of his last 5 starts and allowing 3 or more goals in 5 of his last 6. He’s already played 33 games this season, and the most he’s played in a season is 41 regular-season games plus 4 playoff games for Providence in 2023-24. They’re getting more starts for Frederik Andersen, but with 13 games left for the team, Bussi’s fatigue will become a concern. It’s also still possible they turn to Andersen for their playoff starts.

Wild Card Race

Boston continues to get points and has started to stake a claim to at least the first Wild Card position. They still have a chance to pass Montreal for the third position in the Atlantic, but for now, the focus remains on claiming points each and every game. Detroit holds the second Wild Card spot, but only by the slimmest of margins. The Islanders are only one point behind them while the Senators remain three points back. The injuries to Brandsegg-Nygard, Rasmussen, and Larkin are critical for the Red Wings. Gibson already has 47 starts under his belt for this season, but he will be leaned upon down the stretch, given the Wings play several playoff teams or teams in the race down the stretch.

Speaking of leaning heavily on starting goaltenders, the Islanders will be turning toward Ilya Sorokin a lot down the stretch, while the Senators will be turning to Linus Ullmark. Sorokin had a great start to the season, but the break for the Olympics seems to have hurt his game. Since returning, he’s allowed 3 or more goals in 7 of his 9 starts. The Islanders have gone 5-4 in those starts, with four of their victories coming in extra time. Ullmark, on the other hand, has looked dialed in since the return from the Olympic break. He’s allowed two or fewer goals in 6 of his 10 starts since the break and has helped the team to a 6-4 record over those games, earning standings points in 8 of them.

The second Wild Card position is coming down to a three-way battle between the Detroit Red Wings, New York Islanders, and Ottawa Senators. Right now, it looks like the Senators are the team that can sustain the high level of winning required to clinch the spot. However, Detroit and New York hold the advantage over Ottawa.

Standings Prediction

Based on how teams are currently playing, below is my current projection for how the Eastern Conference will finish:

Atlantic Division

Buffalo Sabres

Tampa Bay Lightning

Boston Bruins

Metropolitan Division

Carolina Hurricanes

Columbus Blue Jackets

Pittsburgh Penguins

Wild Card

Montreal Canadiens

Ottawa Senators

How do you think the playoff spots will slot in the Eastern Conference?